U.S. Covid cases could near zero in 6 months, UBS economist says

first_imgThe United States has experienced more than 10 million Covid-19 cases since the pandemic started. The country has seen record highs this week in terms of coronavirus hospitalizations and daily infections, with 153,496 cases on Thursday, according to Johns Hopkins University.This comes as speculation mounts on whether the U.S. economy will be shut down once again. An advisor to President-elect Joe Biden has said that closing businesses for four to six weeks could help reduce the number of infections and get the economy on track until a vaccine is approved and distributed.With cases surging in Chicago, Mayor Lori Lightfoot asked residents on Thursday to cancel Thanksgiving plans and stay indoors. – Advertisement – LONDON — The latest coronavirus vaccine developments have brightened the outlook for the U.S. economy, with UBS economists boosting their GDP forecasts for the country. Pfizer and BioNTech announced Monday that their Covid-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing the infectious disease. The announcement fueled optimism that the pandemic could come to an end sooner rather than later, driving up stock markets globally.- Advertisement – UBS had originally estimated that the number of coronavirus infections in the U.S. would approach zero by the end of 2021, but the vaccine news has made the bank bring that forecast forward by six months.“We might get a situation where reported cases of Covid in the United States fall very close to zero in Q2 (second quarter) of next year. That six month difference, that two-quarter difference matters a lot, it means an extra 1 to 1.25 percentage point gain in GDP next year,” Seth Carpenter, chief U.S. economist at UBS, told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche on Thursday.He added that the vaccine news “was very encouraging” because the efficacy rate came in much higher than analysts were anticipating.- Advertisement –center_img – Advertisement – Carpenter’s comments differ to the caution portrayed by experts such as White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci. He warned on Thursday that a vaccine may not be enough to help eradicate the disease.“I doubt we are going to eradicate this. I think we need to plan that this is something we may need to maintain control over chronically. It may be something that becomes endemic, that we have to just be careful about,” he said.Fiscal supportThe performance of the U.S. economy in 2021 will also depend on how much fiscal stimulus is approved. Talks between Democrats and Republicans have not yielded a deal, and there’s more uncertainty in the aftermath of the presidential election.Carpenter believes U.S. policymakers will disappoint markets by providing a lower-than-expected support package.“We are actually a little bit pessimistic here relative to where the market is, so we have written down about a $450 billion package that comes in Q1 (first quarter) next year,” he said. In speaking with clients, he said markets are expecting $1 trillion in fiscal stimulus.UBS assumes that Republicans will retain control of the Senate. If the Senate were to be led by Democrats, the bank believes the stimulus could be near $1 trillion.Correction: An earlier version misstated the amount in the first U.S. fiscal stimulus package.last_img read more

Human H5N1 cases reported in Laos, Egypt, China

first_imgFeb 28, 2007 (CIDRAP News) – The World Health Organization (WHO) yesterday confirmed Laos’ first human case of H5N1 avian influenza, involving a 15-year-old girl from Vientiane, and Egypt and China also have reported new cases.The Laotian girl fell ill Feb 10 and was hospitalized in Vientiane with fever and respiratory symptoms on Feb 15, the WHO said. She was transferred 2 days later to a public hospital in Nongkhai, Thailand, where she was in stable condition.Last week officials from Thailand, Laos, and the WHO investigated the girl’s village and districts where poultry had died, the WHO report said. The patient’s close contacts were being monitored daily, and adults have been given oseltamivir; all remained healthy, the agency said.Samples obtained by Lao epidemiologists and Thai clinicians were submitted to the National Institute of Health in Thailand, where they tested positive for H5N1 avian influenza, the WHO said. The country has reported sporadic bird outbreaks since 2004; the most recent one involved ducks at two locations in Vientiane prefecture.Elsewhere, Egypt’s health ministry announced yesterday that a 4-year-old girl from the Nile delta province of Daqahliya, about 75 miles northeast of Cairo, had tested positive for H5N1 avian flu, the Associated Press (AP) reported today.Health ministry spokesman Abdul Rahman Shahin said the girl was in stable condition in a Cairo hospital, where she was admitted yesterday with fever and tested positive for the H5N1 virus, the AP reported. If her case is confirmed by the WHO, she will be listed as Egypt’s 23rd case-patient and the country’s fifth patient this year.Two days ago, Egyptian officials denied a report from the Middle East News Agency (MENA), the country’s state news agency, that a 31-year-old woman from the Nile Delta town of Beheira had tested positive for avian flu. The denial was reported Feb 26 by Reuters.Amr Qandil, director of communicable diseases at Egypt’s health ministry, told Reuters the report wasn’t true. “I do not know where they got this information,” he said.The MENA report said the woman, who raised chickens at home, was hospitalized in Damanhour, but was transferred to a hospital in Alexandria when her condition deteriorated, according to Reuters.In China today, officials confirmed that a 44-year-old woman, a farmer from Fujian province, tested positive for avian flu, Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported. According to a report released by China’s Department of Health to Hong Kong’s Government Information Service, the woman developed fever and a cough 10 days ago, AFP reported. Tests conducted by the China Centre for Disease Control and Prevention were positive for the H5N1 virus.The woman’s case is China’s first in 7 weeks and will raise the country’s official count to 23 if confirmed by the WHO.In other avian flu news, Myanmar reported that the H5N1 virus killed poultry at a farm about 5 miles from Rangoon, the country’s largest city, according to a report submitted to the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE) today.The outbreak began 2 days ago, killing 68 of 1,360 layer chickens, ducks, and pullets, and officials attributed the outbreak to poor biosecurity on the farm, the report said. The remaining birds were destroyed, and authorities instituted several control measures including limiting poultry movement within the country, screening poultry, and disinfecting the affected area.Myanmar’s last poultry outbreak was reported in April 2006.See also:Feb 27 WHO statementOIE reports on Myanmar outbreaklast_img read more

Dominant show from Domination

first_img Byrnes said: “I’m delighted he didn’t get a hard race. He might have a wee break now with the English Cesarewitch on October 12 as his target. He’s very ground dependant, though. He wants good ground. Davy said it wasn’t good enough for him down the back straight. “He hates soft ground and won’t run during the winter. We’ll have a look at a conditions hurdle for him in Galway in September because we could be waiting for the Cesarewitch and the ground could go against us. “He would jump a fence if you wanted him to, but there’s more money over hurdles, for the time being.” There was a 50-1 shock in the Follow Cork Racecourse On Facebook Mares Maiden Hurdle when Go Deimhin, who had plenty to do turning in, led going to the last under David Splaine and forged two and a quarter lengths clear. Training Go Deimhin was “worse than being married to a woman who was nagging you every day”, trainer William Hayes quipped, adding: “We had terrible trouble with her. We had an awful time of it. She gave us ladies’ troubles and scoped dirty in between races. It was an amount of frustration. The win was down to divine and extreme patience.” Patrick Cronin’s 16-1 shot Baidin Fheilimi collared long-time leader Samantha Jones going to the last in the Munster Handicap Hurdle and surged clear to win by six lengths under Pierce Gallagher. Cronin, who bred, owns and trains the seven-year-old mare, said: “I’m a farmer and I’ve a few broodmares and point-to-pointers. It’s a family outfit and we all help out. We have the licence three or four years and this is my third winner on the track. She’ll go to Killarney for an opportunity handicap hurdle.” Press Association Trainer Charles Byrnes is considering running the gelding (2-9 favourite) in the Betfred Cesarewitch at Newmarket in October, but he is just as talented over hurdles as he is on the Flat. Silk Hall cut out most of the running until an error four out, where Supreme Doc took over, but Domination was coasting in behind them and when Davy Russell nudged him into the lead after the second-last, the six-year-old was soon in an unassailable position and extended his advantage to three lengths at the line without raising a sweat. center_img Domination continued his smooth progress this season with an assured victory in the feature JP McManus Hurdle at Cork.last_img read more