U.S. Covid cases could near zero in 6 months, UBS economist says

first_imgThe United States has experienced more than 10 million Covid-19 cases since the pandemic started. The country has seen record highs this week in terms of coronavirus hospitalizations and daily infections, with 153,496 cases on Thursday, according to Johns Hopkins University.This comes as speculation mounts on whether the U.S. economy will be shut down once again. An advisor to President-elect Joe Biden has said that closing businesses for four to six weeks could help reduce the number of infections and get the economy on track until a vaccine is approved and distributed.With cases surging in Chicago, Mayor Lori Lightfoot asked residents on Thursday to cancel Thanksgiving plans and stay indoors. – Advertisement – LONDON — The latest coronavirus vaccine developments have brightened the outlook for the U.S. economy, with UBS economists boosting their GDP forecasts for the country. Pfizer and BioNTech announced Monday that their Covid-19 vaccine was more than 90% effective in preventing the infectious disease. The announcement fueled optimism that the pandemic could come to an end sooner rather than later, driving up stock markets globally.- Advertisement – UBS had originally estimated that the number of coronavirus infections in the U.S. would approach zero by the end of 2021, but the vaccine news has made the bank bring that forecast forward by six months.“We might get a situation where reported cases of Covid in the United States fall very close to zero in Q2 (second quarter) of next year. That six month difference, that two-quarter difference matters a lot, it means an extra 1 to 1.25 percentage point gain in GDP next year,” Seth Carpenter, chief U.S. economist at UBS, told CNBC’s Joumanna Bercetche on Thursday.He added that the vaccine news “was very encouraging” because the efficacy rate came in much higher than analysts were anticipating.- Advertisement –center_img – Advertisement – Carpenter’s comments differ to the caution portrayed by experts such as White House coronavirus advisor Dr. Anthony Fauci. He warned on Thursday that a vaccine may not be enough to help eradicate the disease.“I doubt we are going to eradicate this. I think we need to plan that this is something we may need to maintain control over chronically. It may be something that becomes endemic, that we have to just be careful about,” he said.Fiscal supportThe performance of the U.S. economy in 2021 will also depend on how much fiscal stimulus is approved. Talks between Democrats and Republicans have not yielded a deal, and there’s more uncertainty in the aftermath of the presidential election.Carpenter believes U.S. policymakers will disappoint markets by providing a lower-than-expected support package.“We are actually a little bit pessimistic here relative to where the market is, so we have written down about a $450 billion package that comes in Q1 (first quarter) next year,” he said. In speaking with clients, he said markets are expecting $1 trillion in fiscal stimulus.UBS assumes that Republicans will retain control of the Senate. If the Senate were to be led by Democrats, the bank believes the stimulus could be near $1 trillion.Correction: An earlier version misstated the amount in the first U.S. fiscal stimulus package.last_img read more

Alan Pardew revelling in Crystal Palace role

first_img Pardew, the former Newcastle boss, is closing in on his one-year managerial anniversary at Selhurst Park after he was unveiled by chairman Steve Parish on January 2. On his arrival, Palace looked destined for relegation, but Pardew guided them to an impressive 10th in the table. They have since landed the marque signing of Yohan Cabaye from Paris St Germain, and with 16 games of the current campaign gone, they are just three points away from a top-four spot. “I don’t think it could have gone much better really,” said Pardew reflecting on his period in charge. “I’ve thoroughly enjoyed my time here and I’ve enjoyed working with Steve Parish in particular. “It’s given me more power in the transfer market to try to build the team around the vision that I have and I hope that continues. “We just want to really push on in this second half of the season and if we can match the first half, I would be delighted.” Palace head into their Barclays Premier League clash at Stoke on Saturday with the imminent investment of £100million from American businessmen Joshua Harris and David Blitzer who are set to purchase a controlling stake in the club. The deal will see the duo, who already own the NBA’s Philadelphia 76ers and the NHL’s New Jersey Devils, hold an equal 18 per cent share in Palace with Parish, who will remain as chairman. But Pardew does not expect to be splashing the cash on new players when the transfer window re-opens next month. “I don’t see too much investment in January,” Pardew said. “I am quite happy with the squad. I think we probably have a little surplus that might need trimming and we have got one or two that might go out on loan or we might move on. Alan Pardew does not believe he could have enjoyed a better 12 months in charge of Crystal Palace. “Maybe we would look at bringing in a body depending on who we lost, but we certainly don’t want to lose any of our key players because our key players are really driving the club forward.” The arrival of Harris and Blitzer will also usher in the redevelopment of Selhurst Park with plans to increase the stadium’s capacity to 40,000. Pardew added: “I have to understand that the stadium is an important part of this investment and I get that. But I don’t think it’s going to impact too much on the transfer kitty I was going to get if the stadium or the investment wasn’t there. “I think we’re pretty much on the same lines as we were. We’ve obviously brought in Yohan Cabaye this year and Bakary Sakho, to great expense. “I’m sure we can do the same next year. If you’re canny in the market you can create a team that is competitive in the Premier League at the top level.” Press Associationlast_img read more